<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<model version="NetLogo 7.0.3" snapToGrid="true">
  <code><![CDATA[globals [
  starting-tents   
  destroyed-tents   
]

breed [fires fire]    
breed [embers ember]  


to setup
  clear-all
  set-default-shape turtles "square"
  ;; tent colony patches
  ask patches with [(random-float 100) < tent-density]
    [ set pcolor green ]
  ;; set starting tent patches counts
  set starting-tents count patches with [pcolor = green]
  ;; start danger/fire from the left edge
  ask patches with [pxcor = min-pxcor and pcolor = green]
    [ ignite ]
  set destroyed-tents 0
  reset-ticks
end

to go
  if not any? turtles  ;; either fires or embers
    [ stop ]
  ask fires
    [ ask neighbors4 with [pcolor = green and random-float 100 < company-pressure]
        [ ignite ]
      set breed embers ]
  
  fade-embers
  tick
end

;; creates the fire turtles
to ignite ;; patch procedure
  sprout-fires 1
    [ set color red ]
  set pcolor black
  set destroyed-tents destroyed-tents + 1
end

;; achieve fading color effect for the fire as it burns
to fade-embers
  ask embers
    [ set color color - 0.3  ;; make red darker
      if color < red - 3.5     ;; are we almost at black?
        [ set pcolor color
          die ] ]
end

to-report percent-destroyed
  if starting-tents = 0 [ report 0 ]
  report (destroyed-tents / starting-tents) * 100
end


; Copyright 1997 Uri Wilensky.
; See Info tab for full copyright and license.]]></code>
  <widgets>
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        <setup>plot 0</setup>
        <update>plot percent-destroyed</update>
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  <info><![CDATA[## NOTE ON THIS VERSION

This model is adapted from the NetLogo Fire model, but I changed it to represent a simplified version of the Ludlow Massacre. In this version, the green patches represent parts of the tent colony, and the fire represents danger/destruction spreading through the colony once violence begins. The model does not show every part of the historical event, but focuses on how destruction can spread through space depending on tent-density and company-pressure.

The original Fire model description is kept below because that is the library model I started from.


## WHAT IS IT?

This project simulates the spread of a fire through a forest.  It shows that the fire's chance of reaching the right edge of the forest depends critically on the density of trees. This is an example of a common feature of complex systems, the presence of a non-linear threshold or critical parameter.

## HOW IT WORKS

The fire starts on the left edge of the forest, and spreads to neighboring trees. The fire spreads in four directions: north, east, south, and west.

The model assumes there is no wind.  So, the fire must have trees along its path in order to advance.  That is, the fire cannot skip over an unwooded area (patch), so such a patch blocks the fire's motion in that direction.

## HOW TO USE IT

Click the SETUP button to set up the trees (green) and fire (red on the left-hand side).

Click the GO button to start the simulation.

The DENSITY slider controls the density of trees in the forest. (Note: Changes in the DENSITY slider do not take effect until the next SETUP.)

## THINGS TO NOTICE

When you run the model, how much of the forest burns. If you run it again with the same settings, do the same trees burn? How similar is the burn from run to run?

Each turtle that represents a piece of the fire is born and then dies without ever moving. If the fire is made of turtles but no turtles are moving, what does it mean to say that the fire moves? This is an example of different levels in a system: at the level of the individual turtles, there is no motion, but at the level of the turtles collectively over time, the fire moves.

## THINGS TO TRY

Set the density of trees to 55%. At this setting, there is virtually no chance that the fire will reach the right edge of the forest. Set the density of trees to 70%. At this setting, it is almost certain that the fire will reach the right edge. There is a sharp transition around 59% density. At 59% density, the fire has a 50/50 chance of reaching the right edge.

Try setting up and running a BehaviorSpace experiment (see Tools menu) to analyze the percent burned at different tree density levels. Plot the burn-percentage against the density. What kind of curve do you get?

Try changing the size of the lattice (`max-pxcor` and `max-pycor` in the Model Settings). Does it change the burn behavior of the fire?

## EXTENDING THE MODEL

What if the fire could spread in eight directions (including diagonals)? To do that, use `neighbors` instead of `neighbors4`. How would that change the fire's chances of reaching the right edge? In this model, what "critical density" of trees is needed for the fire to propagate?

Add wind to the model so that the fire can "jump" greater distances in certain directions.

Add the ability to plant trees where you want them. What configurations of trees allow the fire to cross the forest? Which don't? Why is over 59% density likely to result in a tree configuration that works? Why does the likelihood of such a configuration increase so rapidly at the 59% density?

The physicist Per Bak asked why we frequently see systems undergoing critical changes. He answers this by proposing the concept of [self-organzing criticality] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organized_criticality) (SOC). Can you create a version of the fire model that exhibits SOC?

## NETLOGO FEATURES

Unburned trees are represented by green patches; burning trees are represented by turtles.  Two breeds of turtles are used, "fires" and "embers".  When a tree catches fire, a new fire turtle is created; a fire turns into an ember on the next turn.  Notice how the program gradually darkens the color of embers to achieve the visual effect of burning out.

The `neighbors4` primitive is used to spread the fire.

You could also write the model without turtles by just having the patches spread the fire, and doing it that way makes the code a little simpler.   Written that way, the model would run much slower, since all of the patches would always be active.  By using turtles, it's much easier to restrict the model's activity to just the area around the leading edge of the fire.

See the "CA 1D Rule 30" and "CA 1D Rule 30 Turtle" for an example of a model written both with and without turtles.

## RELATED MODELS

* Percolation
* Rumor Mill

## CREDITS AND REFERENCES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forest-fire_model

## HOW TO CITE

If you mention this model or the NetLogo software in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.

For the model itself:

* Wilensky, U. (1997).  NetLogo Fire model.  http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Fire.  Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

Please cite the NetLogo software as:

* Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

## COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE

Copyright 1997 Uri Wilensky.

![CC BY-NC-SA 3.0](http://ccl.northwestern.edu/images/creativecommons/byncsa.png)

This model is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License.  To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

NetLogo itself is free software for non-commercial use under the terms of the GNU General Public License ([see full license information here](https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/docs/copyright.html)).

To inquire about commercial licenses for either NetLogo or specific models from the models library, please contact netlogo-commercial-admin@ccl.northwestern.edu.

This model was created as part of the project: CONNECTED MATHEMATICS: MAKING SENSE OF COMPLEX PHENOMENA THROUGH BUILDING OBJECT-BASED PARALLEL MODELS (OBPML).  The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (Applications of Advanced Technologies Program) -- grant numbers RED #9552950 and REC #9632612.

This model was developed at the MIT Media Lab using CM StarLogo.  See Resnick, M. (1994) "Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds."  Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  Adapted to StarLogoT, 1997, as part of the Connected Mathematics Project.

This model was converted to NetLogo as part of the projects: PARTICIPATORY SIMULATIONS: NETWORK-BASED DESIGN FOR SYSTEMS LEARNING IN CLASSROOMS and/or INTEGRATED SIMULATION AND MODELING ENVIRONMENT. The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (REPP & ROLE programs) -- grant numbers REC #9814682 and REC-0126227. Converted from StarLogoT to NetLogo, 2001.

<!-- 1997 2001 MIT -->]]></info>
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setup
repeat 180 [ go ]</previewCommands>
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